It keeps coming up in casual conversation, so I'll just mention the possibility of an 'October Surprise' here. You know what I mean. All the little blurbs in foreign papers quoting Pakistani authorities who insist that Osama Bin Laden has already been captured, who seem concerned that they're not getting credit for helping. There have been several of these stories. The officials have always been rapidly discredited by their bosses.

We Americans, used to our melodramatic films, know that IF the story were true and IF the US Gov't wasn't yet making an appropriately grandiose announcement right now, that the most theatrical stating of his capture possible could only occur in October, just before the November presidential elections.

I'm cynical enough to think it's possible. So I read the stories, but keep my thoughts on the matter to myself.

And now, there are new stories!

Hours ago, the US denied new stories of bin Laden's capture broadcast on Iranian State Radio. (Atlanta Journal Constitution, ajc.com)

The report was carried by Iran radio's external Pushtun service. The director of Iran radio's Pushtun service, Asheq Hossein, said he had two sources for the report that bin Laden had been captured.

Iranian state radio quoted its reporter as saying the arrest happened a long time ago.

``Osama bin Laden has been arrested a long time ago, but Bush is intending to use it for propaganda maneuvering in the presidential election,'' he said.

Pakistan's foreign minister has sort-of denied that bin Laden has been captured, sort of.(news.xinhuanet.com/english)

"I am not in position to confirm or contradict that Osama bin Laden is captured," Kasuri told reporters in Islamabad.

"I will not confirm the report that Osama is being captured by the Pakistan Army during the operation in South Waziristan," he said when asked about the confirmation of the report.

That has to be one of the LAMEST denials I've yet read.

It makes some of Rumsfeld's comments seem more cryptic (suntimes.com):"Clearly there's pressure being put on terrorists all over the world, but most recently, and certainly with a great deal of energy and some success, in Pakistan, for which we are very grateful.'' I see.

(There's another story: Australia's Sunday Telegraph is reporting that England's Sunday Express is reporting that bin Laden is surrounded, with the US just waiting for the right moment to swoop in and grab him (sundaytelegraph.news.com.au) This is less worthy of consideration, because it's a story about a story. But still interesting: the first item references comments from military sources that bin Laden's whereabouts are known and he could be captured at any time.)

Speaking of the draft, the former US interim administrator of in Iraq, believes the US military should remain in there for "the next few decades." (govexec.com)

Noting how establishing U.S. naval bases in the Philippines in the early 1900s allowed the United States to maintain a "great presence in the Pacific," Garner said, "To me that's what Iraq is for the next few decades. We ought to have something there ... that gives us great presence in the Middle East. I think that's going to be necessary."

It appears that the US can't invade anyone else without more soldiers. I suppose that's the good news (for the world) and the bad news (for everyone who doesn't want to be drafted). There's more on the topic of military expansion at this part of the ever wonderful thismodernworld.com.

So, last September the Pentagon started staffing up draft boards. (salon.com) You know, draft boards. The people who sent out draft letters to send reluctant American youth to fight in Vietnam. THOSE draft boards.

After the alternative and foreign press (including the BBC) noticed the announcement to staff draft boards, the US Government removed the announcement from its website, which was luckily mirrored by thememoryhole. (thememoryhole.org) An excerpt:

If a military draft becomes necessary, approximately 2,000 Local and Appeal Boards throughout America would decide which young men, who submit a claim, receive deferments, postponements or exemptions from military service, based on Federal guidelines.

Positions are available in many communities across the Nation.

Obscure sources

Today I'd like to sing the praises of an obscure source of some very interesting news: Engineering News Record magazine. (enr.com) As a professional formerly employed in the field of architecture, and currently employed in the area of commercial and institutional construction law, ENR provides me with news about my clients and fascinating projects around the world.

It also provides me with insights into topical news items that I would have been blissfully unaware of if I relied solely on the mainstream media. For example, it was in ENR that I read about the contracts awarded to American countries to rebuild the bridges, schools, and hospitals bombed by the US and NATO during the Balkan conflict. (IAC.org) As the proud winning contractors provided the details, I thought, "Wait - we bombed SCHOOLS?? We bombed HOSPITALS?? Why haven't I heard that we bombed schools before?"

ENR continues to provide fascinating information. For example, I learned that the US expects to be less popular in the future than it is already. In U.S. Army of the Future Will Need Bases To Match (12/1/2003) by Tom Sawyer there is information on changes anticipated to military bases. California has historically had many bases, which are surrounded by barbed wire and generally not very friendly. But in the future, according to this article, "Bases are expected to become holistic support facilities, capable of sustaining their units and supporters independently from surrounding communities, if security issues arise to make it necessary to close them off." I already assumed they were that way. I note that the article isn't differentiating between foreign and local bases, or basis in allied nations, and... well... It's a bad sign.

(On a less political note, the corrupt influence of money on common sense is clear in
Nationwide Chemical Sites Are Targets of Opportunity, (12/1/2003) by Kathleen McFall, in which industry bemoans demands to improve the security and safety of plants near major population centers for homeland security reason. Industry rejects this request and has lobbied against bills that make them responsible for their own private property because... they think it's an environmentalist conspiracy! Yes! They do! These people should not be in charge of a frozen yogurt stand, let alone major hazardous material facilities...)

Also, I learned that the US plans to spend $3.5 million on courthouses and "interrogation facilities" in Cuba, which won't even open until after December of 2004. Which means the U.S. government intends to abduct and detain plenty of additional foreign nationals while dodging the Geneva Convention and other international laws in 2005 and beyond. *shudder*

Do you remember the bombing of the federal building in Oklahoma City? (CNN) Do you remember the subsequent war on Montana and other states that harbor terrorists? How about the war on extremist groups living here in the U.S.?

You don't remember those, because the US government didn't attack Montana and didn't declare war on domestic extremist groups. They're still there. Montana is still a relatively infertile northern state. Those domestic terrorist groups are still suspected of causing the anthrax deaths in 2001. Those domestic terrorist groups are suspected of mailing the toxin ricin to to the government in recent months. Yet, the government's discussions of terrorism only appear to apply to foreigners.

Salim Muwakkil discusses this disparate treatment in Homegrown Terrorists in the March 15th issue of In These Times. His article provides the frightening details of domestic terrorist plots involving biological weapons - which, unlike Saddam Hussein, some of these domestic terrorists actually have. A list of weapons possessed by some plotters who were foiled by investigators included "a cyanide bomb, chemicals and components for additional biological weapons, half a million rounds of ammunition, 65 pipe bombs and briefcases that could be detonated by remote control."

Perhaps the fact that the terrorists are white, American, and Christian somehow excludes their threats against Americans from newsworthiness. Perhaps the fear of foreigners is much easier to manipulate the public with. But the fact that there are extremists already in the United States who are stockpiling lethal weapons and sending biological agents through the mail makes it appear that domestic terrorists are just another domestic issue that is currently being ignored in favor of lucrative foreign contracts and concern over unsubstantiated foreign threats.

If the US government is really serious about fighting actual terrorism, the race and religion of the terrorists shouldn't be an issue.

Women in Afghanistan and Iraq and what they have in common

Afghanistan. I can't stop bringing it up, because it keeps looking like a preview of what will happen in Iraq.

Here's an excerpt from a comment from RAWA printed in the Guardian UK and titled Rule of the Rapists on the current situation:

However, Amnesty International paints a rather different picture: "Two years after the ending of the Taliban regime, the international community and the Afghan transitional administration, led by President Hamid Karzai, have proved unable to protect women. The risk of rape and sexual violence by members of armed factions and former combatants is still high. Forced marriage, particularly of girl children, and violence against women in the family are widespread in many areas of the country."

...In the western province of Herat, the warlord Ismail Khan imposes Taliban-like decrees. Many women have no access to education and are banned from working in foreign NGOs or UN offices, and there are hardly any women in government offices. Women cannot take a taxi or walk unless accompanied by a close male relative. If seen with men who are not close relatives, women can be arrested by the "special police" and forced to undergo a hospital examination to see if they have recently had sexual intercourse.

...One international NGO worker told Amnesty International: "During the Taliban era, if a woman went to market and showed an inch of flesh she would have been flogged; now she's raped."

(There's also a BBC article with additional commentary from Amnesty International (BBC).) RAWA, whose videos filmed at great risk from within burqas helped galvanize Western opposition to the Taliban, cannot open an office in "liberated" Kabul. Rawa's news archive site (updated regularly) features items that repeatedly fail to make the mainstream US news, such as news that the Afghan Supreme Court has banned the broadcast of women singing on television. Liberation indeed!

*

Which brings us to Iraq.

Iraqi women had equal rights under Iraq's 1979 constitution (soros.org) and lived in one of the more opportunity-providing Middle Eastern societies prior to Saddam Hussein's reign:

In 1979, the Iraqi constitution declared all women and men equal before the law. Compulsory education through age 16 enabled women in Iraq to become the most educated and professional in the region, and working outside the home became the norm. Iraqi mothers received generous maternity leave, and in 1980 women could vote and run for election. In the early 80s, women made up 40 percent of the nation’s work force. The Unified Labor Code called for equal pay, benefits and promotions for men and women.

Hussein eroded women's rights to gain favor from neighboring nations, but maintained societal order so that many rights were preserved. The constant presence of repressive police forces maintained order and allowed women to travel safely from common thugs, if not from Hussein's own forces.

But that societal order has broken down completely during the war and occupation. Women have given up jobs and school to hide in their homes. (english.aljazeera.net) Iraq's governing council has already dropped secular family law in favor of religious codes which local women find regressive. (feminist.org)

Zakia Ismael Hakki, a female judge, stated, "This new law will send Iraqi families back to the Middle Ages. It will allow men to have four or five or six wives. It will take away children from their mothers. It will allow anyone who calls himself a cleric to open an Islamic court in his house and decide who can marry and divorce and have rights," reports the Washington Post.

The group Equalityiniraq.com reports that a local human rights leader has been threatened with death for opposing the imposition of sharia law upon women.

I'm not the only one who sees parallels between women's conditions in Afghanistan and Iraq. "This will send us home and shut the door, just like what happened to women in Afghanistan," said Amira Hassan Abdullah, a Kurdish lawyer quoted in the Washington Post.

There have been reports of the disproportionately hard impact of civil disorder on women since last year (commondreams.org). A horrifying NY Times Article called "Rape (and Silence About It) Haunts Baghdad" by Neela Banerjee (nytimes.com, subscription/payment required) from last July detailed the cost of the civil disorder on Baghdad's most vulnerable residents, including young children who have been abducted, raped, and who are now at risk of being murdered by fathers or brothers because their lack of virginity is deemed a dishonor to their male relatives.Schoolgirls are forced to choose between getting an education in school and safety (Guardian UK), and those whose safety is lost lose everything:

"We know of a lot of cases against women," says Nidal Husseini, a nurse at Baghdad's forensic institute. "When a girl is kidnapped and raped and returned to her family, of course the family will take her to a special doctor. The majority of doctors - without a test - will tell her family she is not a virgin, so the family will kill the girl because of the shame. Of course, they will bring the body to us."

Later in this article, an authorities in charge of rape claims brought by women who aren't killed by their families insist that "Most women are liars."

Women's lack of security and safety will prevent them from rebuilding their country. (Commondreams.org)

It isn't merely 'foreign fighters' or 'Baathists' or the regime's former loyalists that pose a threat to the rebuilding and stability of the nation: it is the lack of order that prevents more than half of Iraq's population from meaningfully participating in that country's civil society. It's been demonstrated in many situations that women tend to be less extreme than men, and can have a moderating influence on extremist factions - governments with women participating in them are more politically and religiously moderate. Iraqi women can't provide a moderating influence in their current situation. And that, more than any alleged foreign troublemakers, will prevent Iraq from becoming stable and peaceful.

Much like in Afghanistan...